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 Subject :Pakistan’s Inflation Accelerates 10.51% in November.. 2009-12-10 14:56:30 
Asim Khan
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Joined: 2009-09-07 00:31:28
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Pakistan’s inflation accelerated for the first time in 10 months in November, reducing the scope for the central bank to continue cutting interest rates.

Consumer prices in South Asia’s second-largest economy rose 10.51 percent from a year earlier after gaining 8.87 percent in October, the Federal Bureau of Statistics said on its Web site today. That was more than the median 10.2 percent forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 11 economists.

State Bank of Pakistan on Nov. 25 cut its benchmark interest rate for a third time this year to aid an economy dragged down by a war against Taliban militants. The central bank said risks and uncertainties in the economy have “increased considerably” due to the country’s deteriorating security situation.

“There remain a number of challenges ahead,” said Anushka Shah, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in Mumbai. Borrowing costs may be reduced once more “before price pressures mount and the State Bank of Pakistan turns vigilant.”

Governor Salim Raza lowered the central bank’s key rate in November after inflation slowed in the previous month to the lowest in almost two years. Raza, who took over as governor at the start of 2009, has since April reduced the benchmark rate to 12.5 percent from a record-high 15 percent to prop up what the International Monetary Fund describes as an “anaemic” economy.

Growth Downturn

“The country’s growth downturn is bottoming out, its near-term external liquidity has improved, and macroeconomic imbalances are on the mend,” Aninda Mitra, an analyst at Moody’s Investors Service, wrote in a report today. “However, structural problems in the electricity sector and the worsening security environment pose notable risks.”

Moody’s, which lifted Pakistan’s credit-rating outlook to stable from negative in August, rates the foreign debt at B3, six levels below investment grade.

Pakistan’s army began a military offensive against Taliban guerillas on Oct. 17, triggering a wave of retaliatory suicide bombings and commando-style raids in major cities that have killed more than 450 people.

Inflation may continue to accelerate after the government increased power charges by 7 percent in October as part of the conditions Pakistan was forced to accept to secure a rescue package from the IMF.

The IMF on Aug. 8 agreed to increase a loan to Pakistan by $3.2 billion, after the nation was forced to turn to the Washington-based lender for a $7.6 billion bailout in November last year.

Inflation pressures “could mount doe to the emergence of second-round effects of electricity and gas price adjustments and supply bottlenecks,” said Citigroup’s Shah.

Pakistan’s economy may expand 2.6 percent in the year through June 2010 and inflation may average 10.5 percent, according to Citigroup forecasts.

source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=ago6Gl3Wr4UA
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